In Limbo, outside the Gates of Heaven and Hell, St Peter stands with a scroll. He opens it up and reads it: “God has predicted everything you have ever done, and ever will do. He is not a magical being, however, but an extremely large mind capable of processing the consequences of all the actions that have ensued since He set the world running. For most people, whether they go to Heaven or Hell is based on their deeds in life, but for those who wasted too much time with philosophy and learned about Decision Theory, He created a game to simplify processing. Here are two boxes. In one of them — it is open — there’s a guarantee that you won’t be tortured eternally if you go to Hell. But it will still be painful and unpleasant. There’s also vip tickets for concerts in Heaven. You can watch the Rolling Stones playing Sympathy for the Devil in 1968’s Rock and Roll Circus. Live. God diggs that gig. In the other — it is closed — there is either an entry ticket to Heaven or nothing. You can pick both boxes, or just the closed one. If God predicted you are going to pick just the closed box, He has already put the ticket to Heaven inside. If He predicted you are going to pick both boxes, he has left it empty.”
Bayesian Decision Theorists reason that whatever they do now, God will have predicted it. So they pick the closed box and go to Heaven.
Causal Decision Theorists reason that whatever they do now won’t cause the contents of the box to change. That regardless of whether or not there’s a ticket to Heaven in the closed box, they are better off also picking the open one. They pick both boxes, find nothing in the closed one, and go to Hell. But at least they are not tortured. And they had a smoke in life.
Some people keep their minds trapped in a looping mental calculation and stay in Limbo forever. St Peter tries to remind them every million years that they are welcome to pick the closed box and come to Heaven. Most remain unconvinced.